{ "schema_version": 1, "id": "1973459568580764136", "url": "https://x.com/psychopompish/status/1973459568580764136", "generated_at": "2026-10-15T09:54:53.827713+00:00", "used_by": [ "SRC-COM14-1973459568580764136", "community" ], "post": { "id": "1973459568580764136", "url": "https://x.com/psychopompish/status/1973459568580764136", "author": "psychopompish", "author_name": "psychopompish", "published_at": "Wed Oct 01 18:46:40 +0000 2025", "text": "Let me address the \"bear case\" for $TIBBIR.\n\nThere is a 0% chance $TIBBIR is Micky's side project, test token, or memecoin. Game theory makes that clear.\n\nLet me explain how we can deduce it in this post. \n\n------------------------------------------------------------\nSkin in the Game\n\n\"Skin in the Game\" is an economic principle championed by economist Nassim Nicholas Taleb, in which he poises the idea that actors who operate without bearing risk inevitably act in a non-fiduciary way, since they lack the incentives of true accountability. The problem is asymmetric in nature, one party reaps the rewards while another is left holding the risk.\n\nMicky Malka, founder of Ribbit Capital, the VC firm behind multi-billion dollar companies; Coinbase, Robinhood, NuBank, does not dabble in small memecoins for fun. If Micky is to put his name and wallet anywhere close to $TIBBIR, the cost of failure to his reputation is potentially catastrophic.\n\nIn life, and in crypto, your reputation is your most valuable asset. \n\nAsk yourself: why would Micky, a billionaire VC with a pristine track record, risk being lumped in with frauds and scammers by personally launching $TIBBIR from his own wallet, letting it climb toward a $300M market cap, only to see it collapse to zero? Micky works hard to be seen in the same light as Peter Thiel, Alfred Lin and other world-class VCs. It would be ruinous to be seen as Sam Bankman-Fried.\n\nThe rational move here is that $TIBBIR is a serious project, NOT some throw-away memecoin. The risk to his reputation is too high for someone like Micky to gamble with.\n\n------------------------------------------------------------\nStealth as Utility\n\nIt's clear that many on CT are confused around the functionality of a \"stealth launched\" project. Some often incorrectly deduce the stealth status of $TIBBIR as either a disinterest from Micky or some attempt to sweep the project under the rug.\n\nStealth launches offer real utility and are often utilized by Fortune 500 companies. Big money does not announce their plays until it is fully secure from competition. Big money doesn't play a game and try to win, they first own the board and make sure the game is rigged before ever playing.\n\nA stealth launch permits your technology to remain proprietary, it gives you a running head start with your competitors, and it allows you to push marketing and funding all at once to secure the highest value upon release.\n\nThis strategy has been utilized by Google, Siri, Palantir, Space X, DropBox, and the list goes on.\n\nStealth is not a meme, it serves real utility.\n\n------------------------------------------------------------\nSignaling Equilibrium\n\nSignaling, in contract theory, is the idea that one party conveys credible information to the other as a sign of good faith. For example, in Real Estate contracts, the buyer will usually put down around 2% of purchase price upfront before the deal is finalized as a deposit referred to as an Earnest Money Deposit (EMD).\n\nWhen the @ribbita2012 account (linked to Micky and his circle) autonomously bought a cryptopunk, it was a clear signal to us. In contracts, signaling is only credible if its costly.\n\nCryptopunks are scarce, and currently costs over $200k USD for a single punk. This move was more than just showing off their AI agent's functionality. It was a clear signal of the cost involved behind $TIBBIR.\n\n------------------------------------------------------------\nMonopoly Logic\n\nLets unironically use the board game \"Monopoly\" to better understand whats going on with $TIBBIR.\n\nWhen you play Monopoly, do you buy up 2 spaces of the same color, land on the 3rd and final space and not buy it? Of course not. Why would you allow your competitor an opportunity to take control.\n\nLikewise, we can look at Micky's moves to understand his direction. \n\nHe's investing heavily into Privy, IDme, Crossmint and TON. He's controlling identity, wallets, liquidity and infra.\n\nHe's also buying Decagon and Neospace AI. He's controlling AI agent systems.\n\nWhats missing? The tokenized intelligence layer. The glue that monetizes it all. \n\nWhen playing Monopoly, you never leave the final capture layer on the table for someone else to grab.\n\n------------------------------------------------------------\nSmart Money\n\nIf you know that insiders are playing, you can be sure they aren't gambling, but they are playing the dominant strategy.\n\nBinance top $ASTER holder has already bought.\n\nTop wallets have only been accumulating.\n\nIndustry Whales do not chase memes. They front-run asymmetric bets.\n\n------------------------------------------------------------\nThe Bear Case\n\nThe Bear case doesn't exist.\n\nMicky Malka isn't playing a game he can lose.\n\n$TIBBIR is not a meme. There is no alternative. There is no going back.\n\nYou just simply aren't bullish enough.", "article": {}, "children": [], "image_urls": [ "https://pbs.twimg.com/profile_images/1859388160733741058/T7FV6alD_200x200.jpg" ], "has_video": false, "video_urls": [], "text_status": "captured", "provider": "public-intermediary" }, "children": [], "images": [ { "url": "https://pbs.twimg.com/profile_images/1859388160733741058/T7FV6alD_200x200.jpg", "status": "saved", "path": "sources/post-backups/media/b61dad40f89e9e783db407f4d2efd60d3f51aacbb950e354afd83cd5b20fc07e.jpg", "sha256": "b61dad40f89e9e783db407f4d2efd60d3f51aacbb950e354afd83cd5b20fc07e", "bytes": 14524, "retrieved_at": "2026-10-15T09:50:56.430407+00:00" } ], "referenced_by": [], "provenance": { "path": "sources/community-deep-dive-2026-10-14/fx-1973459568580764136.json", "sha256": "fcb0029af36df959d488de66872c04d41f39d0b1637faa2879e318a708a8a735", "retrieved_at": null }, "raw_post": { "url": "https://x.com/psychopompish/status/1973459568580764136", "id": "1973459568580764136", "text": "Let me address the \"bear case\" for $TIBBIR.\n\nThere is a 0% chance $TIBBIR is Micky's side project, test token, or memecoin. Game theory makes that clear.\n\nLet me explain how we can deduce it in this post. \n\n------------------------------------------------------------\nSkin in the Game\n\n\"Skin in the Game\" is an economic principle championed by economist Nassim Nicholas Taleb, in which he poises the idea that actors who operate without bearing risk inevitably act in a non-fiduciary way, since they lack the incentives of true accountability. The problem is asymmetric in nature, one party reaps the rewards while another is left holding the risk.\n\nMicky Malka, founder of Ribbit Capital, the VC firm behind multi-billion dollar companies; Coinbase, Robinhood, NuBank, does not dabble in small memecoins for fun. If Micky is to put his name and wallet anywhere close to $TIBBIR, the cost of failure to his reputation is potentially catastrophic.\n\nIn life, and in crypto, your reputation is your most valuable asset. \n\nAsk yourself: why would Micky, a billionaire VC with a pristine track record, risk being lumped in with frauds and scammers by personally launching $TIBBIR from his own wallet, letting it climb toward a $300M market cap, only to see it collapse to zero? Micky works hard to be seen in the same light as Peter Thiel, Alfred Lin and other world-class VCs. It would be ruinous to be seen as Sam Bankman-Fried.\n\nThe rational move here is that $TIBBIR is a serious project, NOT some throw-away memecoin. The risk to his reputation is too high for someone like Micky to gamble with.\n\n------------------------------------------------------------\nStealth as Utility\n\nIt's clear that many on CT are confused around the functionality of a \"stealth launched\" project. Some often incorrectly deduce the stealth status of $TIBBIR as either a disinterest from Micky or some attempt to sweep the project under the rug.\n\nStealth launches offer real utility and are often utilized by Fortune 500 companies. Big money does not announce their plays until it is fully secure from competition. Big money doesn't play a game and try to win, they first own the board and make sure the game is rigged before ever playing.\n\nA stealth launch permits your technology to remain proprietary, it gives you a running head start with your competitors, and it allows you to push marketing and funding all at once to secure the highest value upon release.\n\nThis strategy has been utilized by Google, Siri, Palantir, Space X, DropBox, and the list goes on.\n\nStealth is not a meme, it serves real utility.\n\n------------------------------------------------------------\nSignaling Equilibrium\n\nSignaling, in contract theory, is the idea that one party conveys credible information to the other as a sign of good faith. For example, in Real Estate contracts, the buyer will usually put down around 2% of purchase price upfront before the deal is finalized as a deposit referred to as an Earnest Money Deposit (EMD).\n\nWhen the @ribbita2012 account (linked to Micky and his circle) autonomously bought a cryptopunk, it was a clear signal to us. In contracts, signaling is only credible if its costly.\n\nCryptopunks are scarce, and currently costs over $200k USD for a single punk. This move was more than just showing off their AI agent's functionality. It was a clear signal of the cost involved behind $TIBBIR.\n\n------------------------------------------------------------\nMonopoly Logic\n\nLets unironically use the board game \"Monopoly\" to better understand whats going on with $TIBBIR.\n\nWhen you play Monopoly, do you buy up 2 spaces of the same color, land on the 3rd and final space and not buy it? Of course not. Why would you allow your competitor an opportunity to take control.\n\nLikewise, we can look at Micky's moves to understand his direction. \n\nHe's investing heavily into Privy, IDme, Crossmint and TON. He's controlling identity, wallets, liquidity and infra.\n\nHe's also buying Decagon and Neospace AI. He's controlling AI agent systems.\n\nWhats missing? The tokenized intelligence layer. The glue that monetizes it all. \n\nWhen playing Monopoly, you never leave the final capture layer on the table for someone else to grab.\n\n------------------------------------------------------------\nSmart Money\n\nIf you know that insiders are playing, you can be sure they aren't gambling, but they are playing the dominant strategy.\n\nBinance top $ASTER holder has already bought.\n\nTop wallets have only been accumulating.\n\nIndustry Whales do not chase memes. They front-run asymmetric bets.\n\n------------------------------------------------------------\nThe Bear Case\n\nThe Bear case doesn't exist.\n\nMicky Malka isn't playing a game he can lose.\n\n$TIBBIR is not a meme. There is no alternative. There is no going back.\n\nYou just simply aren't bullish enough.", "raw_text": { "text": "Let me address the \"bear case\" for $TIBBIR.\n\nThere is a 0% chance $TIBBIR is Micky's side project, test token, or memecoin. Game theory makes that clear.\n\nLet me explain how we can deduce it in this post. \n\n------------------------------------------------------------\nSkin in the Game\n\n\"Skin in the Game\" is an economic principle championed by economist Nassim Nicholas Taleb, in which he poises the idea that actors who operate without bearing risk inevitably act in a non-fiduciary way, since they lack the incentives of true accountability. The problem is asymmetric in nature, one party reaps the rewards while another is left holding the risk.\n\nMicky Malka, founder of Ribbit Capital, the VC firm behind multi-billion dollar companies; Coinbase, Robinhood, NuBank, does not dabble in small memecoins for fun. If Micky is to put his name and wallet anywhere close to $TIBBIR, the cost of failure to his reputation is potentially catastrophic.\n\nIn life, and in crypto, your reputation is your most valuable asset. \n\nAsk yourself: why would Micky, a billionaire VC with a pristine track record, risk being lumped in with frauds and scammers by personally launching $TIBBIR from his own wallet, letting it climb toward a $300M market cap, only to see it collapse to zero? Micky works hard to be seen in the same light as Peter Thiel, Alfred Lin and other world-class VCs. It would be ruinous to be seen as Sam Bankman-Fried.\n\nThe rational move here is that $TIBBIR is a serious project, NOT some throw-away memecoin. The risk to his reputation is too high for someone like Micky to gamble with.\n\n------------------------------------------------------------\nStealth as Utility\n\nIt's clear that many on CT are confused around the functionality of a \"stealth launched\" project. Some often incorrectly deduce the stealth status of $TIBBIR as either a disinterest from Micky or some attempt to sweep the project under the rug.\n\nStealth launches offer real utility and are often utilized by Fortune 500 companies. Big money does not announce their plays until it is fully secure from competition. Big money doesn't play a game and try to win, they first own the board and make sure the game is rigged before ever playing.\n\nA stealth launch permits your technology to remain proprietary, it gives you a running head start with your competitors, and it allows you to push marketing and funding all at once to secure the highest value upon release.\n\nThis strategy has been utilized by Google, Siri, Palantir, Space X, DropBox, and the list goes on.\n\nStealth is not a meme, it serves real utility.\n\n------------------------------------------------------------\nSignaling Equilibrium\n\nSignaling, in contract theory, is the idea that one party conveys credible information to the other as a sign of good faith. For example, in Real Estate contracts, the buyer will usually put down around 2% of purchase price upfront before the deal is finalized as a deposit referred to as an Earnest Money Deposit (EMD).\n\nWhen the @ribbita2012 account (linked to Micky and his circle) autonomously bought a cryptopunk, it was a clear signal to us. In contracts, signaling is only credible if its costly.\n\nCryptopunks are scarce, and currently costs over $200k USD for a single punk. This move was more than just showing off their AI agent's functionality. It was a clear signal of the cost involved behind $TIBBIR.\n\n------------------------------------------------------------\nMonopoly Logic\n\nLets unironically use the board game \"Monopoly\" to better understand whats going on with $TIBBIR.\n\nWhen you play Monopoly, do you buy up 2 spaces of the same color, land on the 3rd and final space and not buy it? Of course not. Why would you allow your competitor an opportunity to take control.\n\nLikewise, we can look at Micky's moves to understand his direction. \n\nHe's investing heavily into Privy, IDme, Crossmint and TON. He's controlling identity, wallets, liquidity and infra.\n\nHe's also buying Decagon and Neospace AI. He's controlling AI agent systems.\n\nWhats missing? The tokenized intelligence layer. The glue that monetizes it all. \n\nWhen playing Monopoly, you never leave the final capture layer on the table for someone else to grab.\n\n------------------------------------------------------------\nSmart Money\n\nIf you know that insiders are playing, you can be sure they aren't gambling, but they are playing the dominant strategy.\n\nBinance top $ASTER holder has already bought.\n\nTop wallets have only been accumulating.\n\nIndustry Whales do not chase memes. They front-run asymmetric bets.\n\n------------------------------------------------------------\nThe Bear Case\n\nThe Bear case doesn't exist.\n\nMicky Malka isn't playing a game he can lose.\n\n$TIBBIR is not a meme. There is no alternative. There is no going back.\n\nYou just simply aren't bullish enough.", "display_text_range": [ 0, 4835 ], "facets": [ { "type": "symbol", "indices": [ 35, 42 ], "original": "TIBBIR" }, { "type": "italic", "indices": [ 56, 66 ] }, { "type": "symbol", "indices": [ 66, 73 ], "original": "TIBBIR" }, { "type": "bold", "indices": [ 268, 284 ] }, { "type": "symbol", "indices": [ 871, 878 ], "original": "TIBBIR" }, { "type": "bold", "indices": [ 972, 1017 ] }, { "type": "symbol", "indices": [ 1167, 1174 ], "original": "TIBBIR" }, { "type": "symbol", "indices": [ 1458, 1465 ], "original": "TIBBIR" }, { "type": "bold", "indices": [ 1658, 1676 ] }, { "type": "symbol", "indices": [ 1828, 1835 ], "original": "TIBBIR" }, { "type": "bold", "indices": [ 2651, 2672 ] }, { "type": "mention", "indices": [ 3005, 3017 ], "original": "ribbita2012", "id": "1878177697215725569" }, { "type": "symbol", "indices": [ 3380, 3387 ], "original": "TIBBIR" }, { "type": "bold", "indices": [ 3451, 3465 ] }, { "type": "symbol", "indices": [ 3556, 3563 ], "original": "TIBBIR" }, { "type": "bold", "indices": [ 4278, 4289 ] }, { "type": "symbol", "indices": [ 4425, 4431 ], "original": "ASTER" }, { "type": "bold", "indices": [ 4632, 4645 ] }, { "type": "symbol", "indices": [ 4724, 4731 ], "original": "TIBBIR" } ] }, "author": { "screen_name": "psychopompish", "url": "https://x.com/psychopompish", "id": "1446202263408578560", "followers": 722, "following": 301, "likes": 4425, "media_count": 507, "name": "psychopompish", "description": "Currently on redemption arc", "raw_description": { "text": "Currently on redemption arc", "facets": [] }, "location": "", "banner_url": "https://pbs.twimg.com/profile_banners/1446202263408578560/1765690685", "avatar_url": "https://pbs.twimg.com/profile_images/1859388160733741058/T7FV6alD_200x200.jpg", "joined": "Thu Oct 07 19:54:36 +0000 2021", "protected": false, "website": null, "verification": { "verified": true, "verified_at": null, "type": "individual" }, "avatar_color": null }, "replies": 46, "retweets": 67, "likes": 246, "bookmarks": 51, "quotes": 7, "created_at": "Wed Oct 01 18:46:40 +0000 2025", "created_timestamp": 1759344400, "views": 14531, "is_note_tweet": true, "community_note": null, "lang": "en", "replying_to": null, "replying_to_status": null, "twitter_card": "tweet", "color": null, "provider": "twitter", "reposted_by": null }, "video_policy": "No video bytes downloaded or hosted." }